The future of the New Zealand plastic surgery workforce.

[AIMS] The New Zealand (NZ) plastic and reconstructive surgery (PRS) workforce provides reconstructive plastic surgery (RPS) public services from six centres. There has been little analysis on whether the workforce is adequate to meet the needs of the NZ population currently or in the future. This study analysed the current workforce, its distribution and future requirements.

[METHODS] PRS manpower data, workforce activities, population statistics, and population modelling were analysed to determine current needs and predict future needs for the PRS workforce. The NZ PRS workforce is compared with international benchmarks. Regional variation of the workforce was analysed with respect to the population's access to PRS services. Future supply of specialist plastic surgeons is analysed.

[RESULTS] NZ has a lower number of plastic surgeons per capita than comparable countries. The current NZ PRS workforce is mal-distributed. Areas of current and emerging future need are identified.

[CONCLUSIONS] The current workforce mal-distribution will worsen with future population growth and distribution. Up to 60% of the NZ population will be at risk of inadequate access to PRS services by 2027. Development of PRS services must be coordinated to ensure that equitable and sustainable services are available throughout NZ. Strategies for ensuring satisfactory future workforce are discussed.